Nordics

Expert research and analysis on the Nordic markets from Nordea Markets’ renowned specialists. We understand all the intricacies of this unique region and our experts posess detailed knowledge based on long associations with the Nordic countries.

Katrine Boye

Norway: Norges Bank’s purchases of FX to Pension fund should increase

15 May 2012 | Katrine Boye
An updated calculation based on the revised national budget for 2012 shows that Norges Bank definitely will continue to purchase foreign exchange throughout this year.
Nordea Financial Forecasts

New financial forecasts from Nordea – Continued choppy waters

14 May 2012 | Steen Grøndahl
Greek elections and contagion risks still the major story. We are keeping our forecasts basically unchanged.
Steinar Juel

Norway: Reduced structural non-oil budget deficit in revised 2012-budget

10 May 2012 | Steinar Juel
During the years with the present majority government, the revised budgets presented in the spring have contained few, if any, new initiatives on the expenditure or income side.
Person_governor_øystein_olsen_480x300

Norway: Norges Bank to hike in October

3 May 2012 | Katrine Boye
Our latest update on Norges Bank, NOK rates and FX.
Storm

NEMO: Europe heats up over the Summer

3 May 2012 | Steen Grøndahl
Our latest take on Nordic and Global financial markets and economies.
Katrine Boye

Norway: Booming retail sales - earlier hike more likely

27 Apr 2012 | Katrine Boye
The March figures for retail sales and consumption of goods show a strong momentum in private consumption at the beginning of 2012. There might be some “Easter effects”, but still Q1 is very strong and stronger than Norges Bank’s forecast for growth in private consumption.
Steinar Juel

Norway: Registered unemployment slightly up

26 Apr 2012 | Steinar Juel
The number of registered unemployed and those on special labour market schemes increased in April seasonally by about 550 persons.
Pasi Sorjonen

Data points to a surprisingly robust Q1 in Finland

26 Apr 2012 | Pasi Sorjonen
The Finnish economy most likely outperformed our forecast in Q1. While exports have rebounded just the way we expected, retail sales have been surprisingly strong.
Country_crown_Sweden

Central Bank Watch Sweden - Passive Riksbank pausing

18 Apr 2012 | Mikael Sarwe
The main reason why rates were left on hold today is that in the Riksbank’s view, monetary policy is already expansionary. Also, the Riksbank seems unwilling to cut rates further and this leads us to raise our repo rate forecast, with the repo rate now bottoming at 1.00% instead of 0.75%.
Person_governor_øystein_olsen_480x300

Norges Bank: new considerations, new rate path

18 Apr 2012 | Erik Bruce
The decision not to bring inflation back on target faster through lower interest rates is, according to Norges Bank, based on its wish to secure financial stability.
Country_stamp_Sweden_flag

Sweden update - Few reforms in government spring budget

17 Apr 2012 | Mikael Sarwe
Our senior analyst, Bengt Roström has published a Sweden update.
Erik Bruce

Norway: Airfares pulled up core inflation

10 Apr 2012 | Erik Bruce
Core inflation one tenth above Norges Bank’s forecast should not have any strong effect on its view on rates, especially when the volatile airfares explain between 0.1% and 0.2% points of the rise in core inflation.
Currency_SEK2

Inflationen närmar sig Riksbankens prognos

4 Apr 2012 | Mikael Sarwe
Vi räknar med att KPI steg med 0,2 procent i mars på månadsbasis. Inflationen är något lägre än vad Riksbanken har räknat med, men avvikelsen minskar.
Katrine Boye

Norway: Somewhat higher credit growth

2 Apr 2012 | Katrine Boye
We don’t believe Norges Bank was surprised by today’s credit growth figures. These figures have shown the same tendency for a long time - that total credit growth is increasing slowly and that is probably in line with Norges Bank’s view.
Erik Bruce

Norway: Core inflation to move sideways

30 Mar 2012 | Erik Bruce
The March inflation readings are due out on 10 April. We forecast core inflation (CPI-ATE inflation) at 1.3% y/y, unchanged from last month. If we are right, inflation will be only marginally below Norges Bank’s forecast and nothing much will happen.
Country_Flag_Norway

Norway: Consumers are catching up after a week 2011 H2

30 Mar 2012 | Katrine Boye
Retail sales figures for January and February are strong and on the strong side to Norges Bank, but we need a few more months’ data to be convinced that this is the new trend in retail sales.
Katrine Boye

Norway: Unemployment figures in line with Norges Bank

29 Mar 2012 | Katrine Boye
March unemployment figures suggest the trend in unemployment is slowly downwards and this is well in line with Norges Bank’s view.
Katrine Boye

Norway: February retail sales - be prepared for a surprise

29 Mar 2012 | Katrine Boye
The retail sales figures for February and January will show how strong Norwegian consumers started in 2012. If we are right in our forecasts for January and February retail sales, the trend in retail sales is more or less in line with both our and Norges Bank’s view. But if the consensus forecast is right, the trend is much stronger and on the upside to Norges Bank’s forecast.
EconomicOutlook_March2012_480x300

Ekonomiska Utsikter mars 2012: Ljusglimtar

27 Mar 2012 | Mikael Sarwe
Nordea har publicerat prognosen Ekonomiska Utsikter. Läs hela rapporten här.
Jan von Gerich

More movements within AAA-rated country bond spreads

23 Mar 2012 | Jan von Gerich
The outlook for Dutch bonds looks much more clouded than that for their Finnish counterparts. Whereas Dutch bonds are burdened by political uncertainty, big deficits and another economic recession, Finland is making headway to balance its books.
Erik Bruce

Forsiktige forbrukere ga rentekutt, men vanskelig å forutsi

23 Mar 2012 | Erik Bruce
Norges Bank er neppe fornøyd med at en sentralbank som på gammeldags måte bare hinter litt i uttalelsene sannsynligvis ville vært mer forutsigbar på siste rentemøte enn Norges Bank.
Erik Bruce

Norway: Lower unemployment – strong employment

21 Mar 2012 | Erik Bruce
Today’s LFS unemployment could indicate that Norges Bank underestimates the downward trend in unemployment. So far however it is too early to conclude that unemployment is on the downside to Norges Bank’s forecast.
Navigator

Navigatøren - Olsen tok markedet på senga

19 Mar 2012 | Gaute Langeland
Norges Bank leverte et overraskende rentekutt etter å ha brukt årstalen til å forklare hvorfor et kutt ikke var veien å gå.
Country_Flag_Norway

Norges Bank: Surprise cut

14 Mar 2012 | Erik Bruce
Norges Bank lowered its key rates by 25 bp to 1.50%. Both consensus and Nordea was 1.75%. 1.75% was also priced in. The interest rate forecast is flat at 1.50% until summer 2013 when it forecast gradually higher rates.
Erik Bruce

Norway: Inflation near Norges Bank’s forecast

9 Mar 2012 | Erik Bruce
Norges Bank will most likely conclude that inflation is about as expected in the upcoming monetary policy report. Despite the strong NOK we see the chance of a rate cut as rather small on the upcoming MPC meeting.
Katrine Boye

Norway: Consumers started 2012 strongly

2 Mar 2012 | Katrine Boye
One should careful to make too much out of one single month’s figure, but it seems like private consumption started very strong in 2012 with consumption of goods in January being about 2% higher the average for 2011 Q4. If this trend continues, the very strong Norges Bank forecast for private consumption in 2012 is actually reasonable.
Country_Norway

Norway: Confirming a strong picture

1 Mar 2012 | Erik Bruce
Despite the slight increase in unemployment today’s figures confirm the strong picture. Capacity utilization and domestic growth are as high as Norges Bank forecasted in October or if anything higher. Despite that we will see no rate hike in the near future with the very strong NOK, a weaker international outlook and still higher spreads in credit markets than expected in the October report.
Country_Flag_Norway

Norway: Strong regional network

29 Feb 2012 | Erik Bruce
Norges Bank has published its Q1 regional network report (a business survey done in January). Read about the results here.
Country_Sweden

Q4 GDP – marked deceleration

24 Feb 2012 | Mikael Sarwe
The outcome of today’s Q4 GDP is important ahead of the Riksbank’s interest rate decision in April. Our GDP forecast is considerably below the central bank’s, suggesting an easier monetary policy stance.
Country_Sweden_books_flag

Labour market decisive

16 Feb 2012 | Mikael Sarwe
As expected, today the Riksbank announced its decision to trim the repo rate by 25 bp to 1.50%. In motivating its decision, the bank notes that inflation is low and that Swedish economic growth has slowed more than anticipated.
Country_Norway

Norway: GDP in line with Norges Bank

16 Feb 2012 | Erik Bruce
Norway Mainland Q4 GDP growth was 0.6 %q/q compared to our forecast at 0.4% and consensus of 0.5% q/q.
Country_Flag_Norway

Norway: No rate cut from Norges Bank

10 Feb 2012 | Erik Bruce
Core inflation measured by CPI-ATE came out at 1.3% y/y in January compared to 1.0% in December.
Country_stamp_Sweden_flag

Few alternatives for the Riksbank

9 Feb 2012 | Mikael Sarwe
A downward adjustment of the GDP forecast and prospects for a poorer labour market, in combination with low inflation, give the Riksbank few alternatives other than to cut the rate by 25 points at next week's monetary policy meeting.
Currency_credit-card_on-line

Chief Economist’s Corner - Nordics “best in class”

30 Jan 2012 | Helge J. Pedersen
Nordic countries are among the few still qualifying for top ratings. However, this has not always been the case, and the Nordics will not retain their high ratings unless their public finances continue to outperform German public finances.
Country_Sweden_building_3

Expect rising unemployment

27 Jan 2012 | Mikael Sarwe
Recent weak Swedish data motivates a downward revision in our Q4 GDP forecast. In turn, this will lead to lower employment and higher unemployment in 2012.
Currency_SEK2

Moderate inflationary pressure in 2012

25 Jan 2012 | Mikael Sarwe
Inflationary pressure is deemed moderate this year, which opens up for further rate cuts from the Riksbank. The year starts with a 0.6% m/m dip in CPI in January.
Country_Sweden_books_flag

The Riksbank’s simple rule of thumb

24 Jan 2012 | Mikael Sarwe
The Swedish Riksbank follows labour market trends closely and has adjusted its repo rate in correlation to the unemployment rate in no less than 95% of cases over the last 10 years. Based on this, we have formulated a simple rule of thumb for the Riksbank.
Erik Bruce

Ikke mye vi kan gjøre hvis krisen treffer oss igjen

4 Jan 2012 | Erik Bruce
Det er klare tegn på at eurokrisen/ problemene i kredittmarkedene nå rammer norsk økonomi. Prognosemarkedene har tatt det inn over seg og de fleste venter nå en vekst i fastlandsøkonomien på 2- 2 ½ % i 2012. Betydelig laver enn de ventet i sommer, men ingen krise. Det kan gå verre og statsministeren advarer i beste sendetid om faren for ”double dip”.
Country_Denmark

Economic Outlook Denmark - A year of challenges

19 Dec 2011 | Helge J. Pedersen
Since summer the European debt crisis has made its clear mark on the Danish economy.
Country_Flag_Sweden

Sweden Update: Stagnation

1 Dec 2011 | Mikael Sarwe
We expect the Swedish economy to stagnate in 2012.
Economic outlook August 2011

Economic Outlook: Signs of crisis

31 Aug 2011
Leading economic indicators suggest that the world economy is facing a very uncertain period.
Finland

Finnish elections – another risk for Peripherals

18 Apr 2011 | Niels From
Yesterday’s Finnish parliamentary elections resulted in the EU-sceptical True Finns be-coming the third biggest party with 19% of the votes.