Commodities

Expert research and analysis on commodities from Nordea Markets’ renowned analysts.

Energy_Oil2

Oil Market monthly - January 2012

1 Feb 2012 | Thina Margrethe Saltvedt
We expect oil prices will trade around the current level at USD 110/barrel if the verbal war between the West and Iran continues.
Thina Saltved

Updated oil price forecast for December

2 Dec 2011 | Thina Margrethe Saltvedt
An updated oil price forecast amidst findings that oil demand is rising at a lower than expected rate.
Video_Metal

Metal Market Outlook - October 2011

26 Oct 2011 | Bjørnar Tonhaugen
Metals prices driven by Eurozone debt crisis and China slowdown.
Video_Energy_Oil

Oil Market Outlook - October 2011

26 Oct 2011 | Thina Margrethe Saltvedt
Oil prices are still holding firm at the USD 110/barrel mark.
Metal

Metal prices to reflect subdued economic growth

1 Sep 2011 | Bjørnar Tonhaugen
Base Metals Market Update: Base metals price forecasts lowered to reflect expectations of subdued economic growth. Aluminium and copper with healthy fundamental outlook and the market awaits China restocking. Nickel and zinc struggle with oversupply, but prices already at fairly low levels.
Energy_Oil

Updated Oil Price Forecast - Blurry short-term outlook

31 Aug 2011 | Thina Margrethe Saltvedt
Baseline scenario: Long term oil prices still trending up, but blurry short-term outlook Low growth scenario: Slowdown can push oil prices below USD 85/barrel threshold
Metals

Metals Weekly: Will aluminium imports finally pick up in China?

29 Aug 2011 | Bjørnar Tonhaugen
We have long argued that China has drawn down their aluminium inventories. Net imports have not yet picked up. Part of the reason is that is has not yet been economically sensible to increase imports significantly since international prices (LME) adjusted for import taxes have not been low enough compared to domestic spot prices of primary aluminium.
Gold

Gold prices: Bubbly, but not yet explosive

24 Aug 2011 | Bjørnar Tonhaugen
Precious Metal Market Update: Gold prices have risen 30% year-to-date after rallying 20% since July on safe haven demand. Our base case is that gold is not yet at extreme levels, but would be so around 2,200 USD/oz. Investment demand to stay strong until a normalisation of Western monetary policy is in sight.
Energy_Oil3

Oil at USD 100/barrel – better for consumers, no worries for producers

8 Aug 2011 | Thina Margrethe Saltvedt
Nordea Commodities Research: Not surprisingly, oil prices continue to drop sharply today by 1.9%, but it is now trading just above USD 104/barrel.
Industry04

No second round of emergency oil stock releases

22 Jul 2011 | Thina Margrethe Saltvedt
IEA announced today that it will not go for a second round of emergency stock release as the Bureau concludes that: “the Action served a market need by adding liquidity and bridging the gap to additional supplies from OPEC”.
Energy_Oil

Oil prices and changes in EUR/USD

21 Jul 2011 | Thina Margrethe Saltvedt
Oil Market Update A challenging week for EUR/USD and oil prices, how strong are the spill-over effects? Direction of change between oil prices and EUR/USD important, but not clear cut Real oil price changes may cause changes in the real exchange rate, but little proof of the opposite
Energy_Oil2

Petrol and Diesel - Summer holiday outlook

12 Jul 2011 | Thina Margrethe Saltvedt
No clouds in the petrol market, but grey clouds on the horizon for the diesel market this summer
Energy_Gas

IEA changing roles: the world’s oil police

5 Jul 2011 | Thina Margrethe Saltvedt
The decision by the International Energy Agency (IEA) to make 60m barrels of oil available from the emergency reserves of its members to offset the production problems in Libya came as a surprise, to put it mildly.
Industry09

IEA sends a clear signal of mistrust to OPEC

23 Jun 2011 | Thina Margrethe Saltvedt
Oil prices fell by around USD 4/barrel following a press release by the IEA saying that the 28 IEA member countries have agreed to release 60 million barrels of oil in the coming months in response to the ongoing disruption of oil supply in Libya.
Energy_Gas2

Oil Market Update – OPEC meeting

7 Jun 2011 | Thina Margrethe Saltvedt
How eager is OPEC really to lower oil prices? OPEC will increase quotas by 1-1.5mb/d to reduce prices and meet higher oil demand OPEC’s unofficial price expected to have increased to USD 85-105/barrel as expensive spending programmes weigh on budgets Internal cooperation put under pressure – OPEC can lose control of market if cooperation fails
Energy_Electricity

Impact of China’s looming power shortage

1 Jun 2011 | Bjørnar Tonhaugen
Energy & Metals Market Update: China to suffer largest power shortage since 2004 this summer on drought and high coal prices. We see upside risk to our Brent price forecasts in H2 2011 on increased oil and diesel demand. Aluminium and steel production to be most affected by power cuts. Upside risk to prices.
Currency_EUR4

Allocation Update: Inflation fears recede temporarily

11 May 2011 | Roger Wessman
Inflation and rate hike fears have backed down in the past month, but with the economy continuing on the recovery track we think the retracement is just temporary.