Commodities

Expert research and analysis on commodities from Nordea Markets’ renowned analysts.

Metals

Expected slowdown in China’s commodity imports provides little support for pressured markets

10 May 2012 | Bjørnar Tonhaugen
The expected slowdown in Chinese commodity imports finally showed up in preliminary April trade data and seems in-line with both our and the market’s expectations.
Thina Saltved

Oil price drivers: The good, the bad and the ugly

10 May 2012 | Thina Margrethe Saltvedt
At the moment all eyes are on the uncertain political conditions in the Euro area and Saudi Arabia flooding the market with oil. Until Iran and the P5+1 countries meet on 23 May, we believe oil prices will remain elevated. But as we move into Q3 and demand seasonally rebounds we expect oil prices to pick up steam.
Video_Energy_Oil

Risk of tight fuel oil market this summer

9 May 2012 | Bjørnar Tonhaugen
The recent correction in risky asset markets has also sent residual fuel oil prices sharply lower. We still see a risk of specific tightness in global fuel oil supply over the summer. See our latest webcast where we discuss the outlook for residual fuel oil.
Oil energy commodities

Conflict between Sudan and South Sudan can increase upward pressure on longer-dated oil prices

30 Apr 2012 | Thina Margrethe Saltvedt
When South Sudan finally gained independence from Khartoum, we warned against the risk of increasing political tension as several critical issues had not been resolved before the separation. Unfortunately we were too right in our warning.
Oil energy commodities

Oil - quiet before the storm?

27 Apr 2012 | Bjørnar Tonhaugen
Calmer waters in the oil market have sent implied volatilities in crude option prices to 5-year lows. We argue that event risks are plentiful in the coming months.
Oil energy commodities

A step in the right direction – but further progress is far from certain

16 Apr 2012 | Thina Margrethe Saltvedt
Oil prices fell by more than 1% this morning following talks between Iran and the so-called P5+ 1 countries. After more than a year without negotiations the restart of talks has raised hopes that Iran and the West will finally be able to strike a deal over Tehran’s nuclear programme.
Oil energy commodities

Petrol prices are hovering near record highs

10 Apr 2012 | Thina Margrethe Saltvedt
Higher petrol prices are weighing on demand, and US petrol demand for Q1 is down by 5.6% compared to last year.
Thina Saltvedt

Iran’s “last chance” very near

10 Apr 2012 | Thina Margrethe Saltvedt
Oil prices have been pushed up by around USD 10/barrel this year by the introduction of Iranian oil sanctions and the risk of an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facility.
Oil energy commodities

Oil prices stay high as buffer remains uncomfortably low

3 Apr 2012 | Thina Margrethe Saltvedt
Politcal tension pushes oil prices to new highs, Obama is struggling with high petrol prices before the election and shale oil production is booming in the US. A discussion of Nordea's updated oil prices forecast and risk scenarios.
Oil energy commodities

Petrol prices will remain high so don’t step on the accelerator this Easter

3 Apr 2012 | Thina Margrethe Saltvedt
Drive slowly – don’t rush if you are going to your holiday home this Easter – petrol prices are expected to remain high.
Bjørnar Tonhaugen

Updated Base Metals Price Forecast

27 Mar 2012 | Bjørnar Tonhaugen
Prices to trend higher as global demand rebounds.
Energy_Oil2

Oil prices stay high as buffer remains uncomfortably low

27 Mar 2012 | Thina Margrethe Saltvedt
Oil prices are expected to remain high over the forecast period as the EU/US sanctions and oil embargo targeting Iran’s oil exports and economy will continue to be a bullish factor for oil prices through a tightening of oil fundamentals and elevated geopolitical risk.
Thina Saltvedt

China cut Iranian imports markedly in February - but not to support the US sanctions

21 Mar 2012 | Thina Margrethe Saltvedt
Updated trade figures published today show that China has cut imports of Iranian crude by 45% m/m or around 290k b/d in February.
Metals

Base metals markets in limbo – the next leg upwards could be approaching

21 Mar 2012 | Bjørnar Tonhaugen
The next leg upwards for base metals, notably copper and aluminium, could be approaching. Copper and aluminium buyers should therefore be aware and consider hedging their price risks accordingly.
Bjørnar Tonhaugen

Saudi Arabia’s efforts to calm the oil market unlikely to succeed alone

19 Mar 2012 | Bjørnar Tonhaugen
We doubt that Saudi Arabia’s latest efforts to calm the oil market will alone be enough to cool sentiment or bring oil prices down to the Kingdom’s desired USD 100/barrel level, as OPEC’s effective spare capacity will quickly fall below the comfortable threshold of 3% of global supply.
Commodities China

Where is the Chinese commodities imports slowdown?

13 Mar 2012 | Bjørnar Tonhaugen
It is too early to call the end of the commodities boom.
Thina Saltvedt

Emergency stock release to curb oil prices – for better or worse?

5 Mar 2012 | Thina Margrethe Saltvedt
High and increasing oil prices could jeopardise the economic recovery and reduce the chances of President Obama being reelected. The sharp upswing in oil prices is also a major concern for other net oil-importing countries.
Energy_Oil

Jittery oil prices as safety buffer falls

2 Mar 2012 | Thina Margrethe Saltvedt
Brent oil prices jumped by more than USD 4/barrel to USD 127.80/barrel yesterday surpassing last year’s high, on rumours of a pipeline blast in Saudi Arabia.
Energy_Gas

Leave your gas guzzler in the garage if political tension remains high

1 Mar 2012 | Thina Margrethe Saltvedt
Oil prices measured in euros reached an all-time high last Friday at EUR 93.26/barrel, just surpassing the previous record from 2008.
Global2

Markets too complacent

28 Feb 2012 | Anders Matzen
Considering the macro risks hanging over the global economy, we argue that markets may be too complacent. We see four downside risks that could materialise this year, undermining global growth and eventually negatively affecting investor confidence and market valuations of risky assets.
Energy_Oil5

A double whammy for debt burdened European oil importers

20 Feb 2012 | Thina Margrethe Saltvedt
Friday the Brent oil price reached a new all-time-high at EUR 92.26/barrel breaking thebold record from July 2008 at EUR 91.49/barrel.
Bjørnar Tonhaugen

New oil price forecast - Commodities WebTV

17 Feb 2012 | Bjørnar Tonhaugen
It's exciting times in the oil markets and yesterday the Brent Oil price reached USD 120/barrel for the first time since June last year.
Energy_Oil2

Oil market to stay tight for longer

16 Feb 2012 | Bjørnar Tonhaugen
We have raised our baseline average Brent oil price forecast for 2012E to USD 118/barrel from our 1 December forecast of USD 109/barrel.
Thina Saltvedt

Oil market soon balanced on a knife-edge

15 Feb 2012 | Thina Margrethe Saltvedt
The EU/US sanctions and oil embargo targeting Iran's oil exports and economy are having a big impact already.
Energy_Oil2

Oil Market monthly - January 2012

1 Feb 2012 | Thina Margrethe Saltvedt
We expect oil prices will trade around the current level at USD 110/barrel if the verbal war between the West and Iran continues.
Thina Saltved

Updated oil price forecast for December

2 Dec 2011 | Thina Margrethe Saltvedt
An updated oil price forecast amidst findings that oil demand is rising at a lower than expected rate.
Video_Metal

Metal Market Outlook - October 2011

26 Oct 2011 | Bjørnar Tonhaugen
Metals prices driven by Eurozone debt crisis and China slowdown.
Video_Energy_Oil

Oil Market Outlook - October 2011

26 Oct 2011 | Thina Margrethe Saltvedt
Oil prices are still holding firm at the USD 110/barrel mark.
Metal

Metal prices to reflect subdued economic growth

1 Sep 2011 | Bjørnar Tonhaugen
Base Metals Market Update: Base metals price forecasts lowered to reflect expectations of subdued economic growth. Aluminium and copper with healthy fundamental outlook and the market awaits China restocking. Nickel and zinc struggle with oversupply, but prices already at fairly low levels.
Energy_Oil

Updated Oil Price Forecast - Blurry short-term outlook

31 Aug 2011 | Thina Margrethe Saltvedt
Baseline scenario: Long term oil prices still trending up, but blurry short-term outlook Low growth scenario: Slowdown can push oil prices below USD 85/barrel threshold
Metals

Metals Weekly: Will aluminium imports finally pick up in China?

29 Aug 2011 | Bjørnar Tonhaugen
We have long argued that China has drawn down their aluminium inventories. Net imports have not yet picked up. Part of the reason is that is has not yet been economically sensible to increase imports significantly since international prices (LME) adjusted for import taxes have not been low enough compared to domestic spot prices of primary aluminium.
Gold

Gold prices: Bubbly, but not yet explosive

24 Aug 2011 | Bjørnar Tonhaugen
Precious Metal Market Update: Gold prices have risen 30% year-to-date after rallying 20% since July on safe haven demand. Our base case is that gold is not yet at extreme levels, but would be so around 2,200 USD/oz. Investment demand to stay strong until a normalisation of Western monetary policy is in sight.
Energy_Oil3

Oil at USD 100/barrel – better for consumers, no worries for producers

8 Aug 2011 | Thina Margrethe Saltvedt
Nordea Commodities Research: Not surprisingly, oil prices continue to drop sharply today by 1.9%, but it is now trading just above USD 104/barrel.
Industry04

No second round of emergency oil stock releases

22 Jul 2011 | Thina Margrethe Saltvedt
IEA announced today that it will not go for a second round of emergency stock release as the Bureau concludes that: “the Action served a market need by adding liquidity and bridging the gap to additional supplies from OPEC”.
Energy_Oil

Oil prices and changes in EUR/USD

21 Jul 2011 | Thina Margrethe Saltvedt
Oil Market Update A challenging week for EUR/USD and oil prices, how strong are the spill-over effects? Direction of change between oil prices and EUR/USD important, but not clear cut Real oil price changes may cause changes in the real exchange rate, but little proof of the opposite
Energy_Oil2

Petrol and Diesel - Summer holiday outlook

12 Jul 2011 | Thina Margrethe Saltvedt
No clouds in the petrol market, but grey clouds on the horizon for the diesel market this summer
Energy_Gas

IEA changing roles: the world’s oil police

5 Jul 2011 | Thina Margrethe Saltvedt
The decision by the International Energy Agency (IEA) to make 60m barrels of oil available from the emergency reserves of its members to offset the production problems in Libya came as a surprise, to put it mildly.
Industry09

IEA sends a clear signal of mistrust to OPEC

23 Jun 2011 | Thina Margrethe Saltvedt
Oil prices fell by around USD 4/barrel following a press release by the IEA saying that the 28 IEA member countries have agreed to release 60 million barrels of oil in the coming months in response to the ongoing disruption of oil supply in Libya.
Energy_Gas2

Oil Market Update – OPEC meeting

7 Jun 2011 | Thina Margrethe Saltvedt
How eager is OPEC really to lower oil prices? OPEC will increase quotas by 1-1.5mb/d to reduce prices and meet higher oil demand OPEC’s unofficial price expected to have increased to USD 85-105/barrel as expensive spending programmes weigh on budgets Internal cooperation put under pressure – OPEC can lose control of market if cooperation fails
Energy_Electricity

Impact of China’s looming power shortage

1 Jun 2011 | Bjørnar Tonhaugen
Energy & Metals Market Update: China to suffer largest power shortage since 2004 this summer on drought and high coal prices. We see upside risk to our Brent price forecasts in H2 2011 on increased oil and diesel demand. Aluminium and steel production to be most affected by power cuts. Upside risk to prices.
Currency_EUR4

Allocation Update: Inflation fears recede temporarily

11 May 2011 | Roger Wessman
Inflation and rate hike fears have backed down in the past month, but with the economy continuing on the recovery track we think the retracement is just temporary.