Poland Outlook

Here is a new Poland outlook from our Polish Chief Economist, Piotr Bujak,

Poland will be a growth outperformer in the EU also in 2012

• Most of the factors that made Poland quite immune to the first wave of the global crisis will work also this time.
• Weak reliance on exports and credit will limit the scale of economic slowdown
• The scope for countercyclical fiscal policy is limited currently, but austerity measures planned by the government should not have a major negative impact on the economy.

Still Poland will feel the heat through three channels:

• The banking sector
• Foreign trade
• Risk perception.

PLN to remain weak until Euro-area crisis is solved, then strengthen.

We now expect two interest rate cuts in the second half of the year.

See the full report below!

Happy reading,

Anders

Other news

Week ahead: Central bank intervention looming?

18 May 2012 | Jan von Gerich

All eyes remain on anecdotal news on how depositors in Greece and outside the country are reacting to the recent events. In terms of economic data releases, the main focus will be on flash PMIs for May.

China: PBoC cuts reserve requirement rates

18 May 2012 | Annika Lindblad

The central bank (PBoC) cut reserve requirements by 50 bp last weekend, thus continuing to ease monetary policy. However, the pace remains slow, and we do not think the PBoC is done yet.

Government Bond Market Update

18 May 2012 | Gaute Langeland

The upcoming auction has potential to disappoint. Positioning in the market is less supportive than it has been for a long time as dealers are no longer short and unlikely to continue buying much more supply at current levels.