Oil Market Outlook – October 2011

In this Oil Market Outlook, Nordea Markets’ senior analyst on global commodities and oil, Thina Margrethe Saltvedt, finds oil prices are still holding firm at the USD 110/barrel mark.

Our baseline scenario for world economic growth and oil market balances seems still to be playing out. Despite the worries about the economic outlook for the US and in particular the Euro zone, the Brent crude market is still tight.

Libyan oil is expected to only gradually come back to the market and supply outages elsewhere have tightened the market significantly. Production losses this year have been markedly higher compared to previous years. Barring a further escalation of the Euro-zone debt crisis or a more severe slowdown in the Chinese economy, oil markets will remain fairly tight in the coming two-three months keeping a floor under prompt oil prices. All in all the average Brent oil price for October is in line with our Q4 oil price forecast at USD 110/bbl. In this scenario, we expect gas/oil cracks to strengthen slightly over the next few months and heavy fuel oil cracks to weaken from current strong levels.

Read more in our Monthly Oil Market Update by clicking the link below and you can watch our updated Oil Market Outlook in Nordea Web-TV.

Oil Market Monthly – October 2011

Other news

Week ahead: Central bank intervention looming?

18 May 2012 | Jan von Gerich

All eyes remain on anecdotal news on how depositors in Greece and outside the country are reacting to the recent events. In terms of economic data releases, the main focus will be on flash PMIs for May.

China: PBoC cuts reserve requirement rates

18 May 2012 | Annika Lindblad

The central bank (PBoC) cut reserve requirements by 50 bp last weekend, thus continuing to ease monetary policy. However, the pace remains slow, and we do not think the PBoC is done yet.

Government Bond Market Update

18 May 2012 | Gaute Langeland

The upcoming auction has potential to disappoint. Positioning in the market is less supportive than it has been for a long time as dealers are no longer short and unlikely to continue buying much more supply at current levels.