Expert economic research and news

Country_subway_sweden

Swedish April LFS: the labour market more resilient than expected

23 May 2012 | Mikael Sarwe

The situation on the labour market is better than the Riksbank’s forecast, suggesting that the Riksbank will stay on hold in July.

Aurelija Augulyte

Emerging Markets FX Monocle – Life after the storm

23 May 2012 | Aurelija Augulyte

The storm did come after the calm, as our April issue of the Monocle suggested. It may get worse before it gets better in the coming weeks, but not for long.

Currency Norway NOK

How safe is the NOK haven?

22 May 2012 | Ole Håkon Eek-Nielsen

EURNOK has turned into a low volatile range bound game.

Country_Flag_India

INR: Breaking records

22 May 2012 | Annika Lindblad
Weakening of the INR continues at a brisk pace in India.
Country_Flag_Sweden

Warning: Swedish GDP falling

22 May 2012 | Mikael Sarwe
GDP contracted by almost 1% q/q in Q1, we believe. Risks are skewed to the downside. That is significantly worse than anticipated by the Riksbank, reinforcing the view that we will see more rate cuts this year.
Erik Bruce

Norway: Mainland GDP on the strong side to Norges Bank

22 May 2012 | Erik Bruce
All in all in line with our view that Norges Bank’s interest rate forecast will be revised up in June and that Norges Bank will hike late this year.
Gaute Langeland

Strategy Norway - NST475 auction review

21 May 2012 | Gaute Langeland
Today’s auction of NST475 was soft. The bond was issued at 97.54 and we have to go back to the issue of NST470 in 2002 to see an introduction further below par.
Currency_PLN_Poland

Poland Flash - Weak output growth

21 May 2012 | Piotr Bujak
Output growth in April slightly accelerated, but this is largely due to statistical factors.
Erik Bruce

Norway GDP – very strong

21 May 2012 | Erik Bruce
Our forecast implies that capacity utilisation increases somewhat faster than forecasted by Norges Bank.
Japan

Long German yields to become Japanese?

21 May 2012 | Jan von Gerich
German yield levels already look very depressed relative to growth and inflation expectations. Still, at the moment the abundance of shorter-term worries prevails, and these worries are likely to push German yields even lower
Europe

Week ahead: Central bank intervention looming?

18 May 2012 | Jan von Gerich
All eyes remain on anecdotal news on how depositors in Greece and outside the country are reacting to the recent events. In terms of economic data releases, the main focus will be on flash PMIs for May.
China

China: PBoC cuts reserve requirement rates

18 May 2012 | Annika Lindblad
The Chinese central bank (PBoC) cut reserve requirements by 50 bp last weekend, thus continuing to ease monetary policy. However, the pace remains slow, and we do not think the PBoC is done yet.
Gaute Langeland

Government Bond Market Update

18 May 2012 | Gaute Langeland
The upcoming auction has potential to disappoint. Positioning in the market is less supportive than it has been for a long time as dealers are no longer short and unlikely to continue buying much more supply at current levels.
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